Gestational diabetes mellitus: prediction in pregnant women with anemic syndrome

• Alexandra A. Epishkina-Minina
• Marina B. Khamoshina
• Agamurad A. Orazmuradov
• Marina G. Lebedeva
• Igor A. Aleyev

Abstract

Aim - to identify predictors of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) risk and to develop a model of mathematical prediction of the probability of disease development for use in I trimester of pregnancy.

Material and methods. Within the prospective cohort study from January to September 2018 on the basis of female consultation NikuLino (Moscow city hospital #64), throughout pregnancy, childbirth and the postpartum period was observed 1140 pregnant women, taken on account to 12 weeks. 357 women were selected and surveyed. In addition to the standard examination determined the levels of serum iron and glycated hemoglobin (HbA_1c). At the end of gestation, the study group included 32 women with developed GDM, the control group - 61 women with physiological pregnancy.

Results. The frequency of GDM registration in the studied cohort was 8.96% (32 out of 357). Was developed a predictive model P = 1/(1 + e^-z)×100%, in which e^-z = -54,8 + 0,19×X₁ + 0,89×X₂ + 4,3×X₃ + 5,92×X₄ – 0,2×X₅ - 0,17×X₆, where P is the probability of developing GDM (%), X¹ – age women (years), X₂ is the BMI (kg/m2), X₃ – the level of glucose in serum (mmol/l), X₄ – level of HbA_1c (%), X₅ – level SV (ng/ml), X₆ – level of hemoglobin (g/l). Pregnant women with P≥50% have a risk of developing GDM.

Conclusions. A mathematical model has been developed in which, based on the identified risk factors, anemia can be a predictor of GDM development. The Proposed model can be used for the mathematical prediction of the risk of GDM in the first trimester of pregnancy.

Keywords:gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), anemia, glycated hemoglobin, serum iron, hemoglobin, venous plasma glucose, early GDM diagnosis

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